Forecasting countries' gross domestic product from patent data

Recent strides in economic complexity have shown that the future development of nations can be predicted with a single “economic fitness” variable, which captures countries' competitiveness international trade. The predictions by this low-dimensional approach could match or even outperform based on much more sophisticated methods, such as those International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, all prior works aimed to quantify fitness from World Trade export data, without considering possibility infer potential for growth alternative sources data. Here, motivated long-standing relationship between technological and growth, we aim forecast patent Specifically, construct citation network countries European Patent Office (EPO) dataset. Initial results suggest H-index centrality is candidate gauge national performance. To validate conjecture, two-dimensional plane defined GDP per capita, use forecasting method dynamical systems test predicting accuracy H-index. We find H-index-GDP IMF approximately 35%, they marginally extracted trade Our inspire further attempts identify predictors different data related scientific innovation.